Calendar Event Details

610 Atmospheres Seminar: Ross J. Salawitch

Affiliation: University of Maryland, College Park
Event Date: Thursday, November 15, 2012

Location: B33:H114
Time: 3:30 PM

An Empirical Model of Global Climate: Reduced Impact of Volcanoes Upon Consideration of Ocean Circulation & Implications for Future Temperature

We describe an empirical model of global climate based on multiple linear regression of past global surface temperature, considering variations in radiative forcing due to GHGs, tropospheric aerosols, the solar cycle, ENSO, volcanic aerosols, and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as well as climate feedback and ocean heat export. We suggest the contribution of volcanic aerosol to global cooling has been overestimated by about a factor of 2, due to prior neglect of variations in the strength of the AMOC. The representation of volcanic aerosols within global climate models will be critiqued and implications for geo-engineering of climate will be discussed. Next, we illustrate how the cantilevering of aerosol radiative forcing and climate feedback results in divergent estimates of future temperature, for regressions constrained to match the century long temperature record. Significant reductions in the uncertainties of aerosol radiative forcing and climate feedback are needed to reduce uncertainty in projections of global warming.

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Posted or updated: Monday, November 5, 2012

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